Armed with a new computer program, local experts may be able to predict specie extinction and figure out ways to prevent the possibility of a population dying off.
The Chicago Zoological Society, which manages Brookfield Zoo, announced that Robert Lacy, Ph.D., population geneticist and conservation biologist, along with a team of colleagues, created the new computer tool, called MetaModel Manager.
Lacy said the idea came about 10 years ago when he thought about how conservation issues are caused by a number of factors. About two years ago, he said the team figured out the technicalities and this summer the they got to the point where they could put the computer program into practice.
“The next critical step is to test it and see if it helps us make better decisions,” Lacy said.
The goal of the computer program was to link together all types of knowledge that pertains to specie population and possible endagerments and have a way to make predictions or ideas on how they can be related with all the combined factors.
CZS President and CEO Stuart Strahl, Ph.D., said in a press release that this new system has come about from scientists who are committed to saving threatened species.
“With MetaModel Manager, researchers can, for the first time ever, simultaneously examine how multiple interacting species are affected by multiple phenomena such as climate change, emerging diseases, habitat changes and human social factors,” Strahl said.
Lacy said the program was put to a test with prairie dogs and ferrets. The information they know was placed into the computer and the software put out results for the next 10 to 20 years and based on the teams understanding, they were pleased with the accuracy of the results.
“It was discouraging also — it was predicting that as plague decimates local prairie dogs, ferrets will drop out,” Lacy said. “(At that same time) the largest and healthiest group population of ferrets in South Dakota, the plague had been killing off their prairie dog prey and (the program showed) to be realistic of what is happening now.”
The next run for the software will be next March when Lacy and a team go to South Africa to analyze disease in buffalo populations which is directly affecting lions.
“Once we think we have a simulation model, they can test the things we have to do,” Lacy said.
The MetaModel Manager is a tool to test options for the future, a way to test responses that may save the situation.
“It’s sort of a thing that is new to science and wildlife management to use simulation tools to analyze possibilities,” Lacy said.
